Ag Weather Forum              03/26 10:01

   Busy Weather Pattern Next Week

   After some drier weather in the last 10 days or so, the weather pattern is 
forecast to become much more active next week, especially in the Midwest.

John Baranick
Staff Meteorologist

   Early March was an active period that saw some really good precipitation 
across the middle of the country. However, it wasn't enough to eliminate a lot 
of drought across the Plains, South, or Southeast, which grew during the last 
two weeks as the pattern became drier. But the weather pattern will be changing 
again for the last couple of days of March and early April, a pattern that will 
feature multiple systems moving through the country, widespread precipitation, 
heavy rainfall and severe weather chances.

   The last 10 days or so have featured a hot and dry upper-level ridge across 
the West and Central, which has been the source of some record heat. But that 
ridge will shift eastward and out of the United States next week. That will 
open up the country to more weather systems, fronts and features that will 
promote more widespread precipitation across the country.

   That begins with a system moving into the Plains on March 30. Models 
disagree with how widespread showers will be with this first impulse, but 
additional impulses will move from the West through the Central and into the 
Northeast through the rest of the week and into Easter weekend.

   Overall, rainfall will target some places like the Midwest over others like 
the Southwest or Southeast, where drier conditions are more likely than not. 
Still, these areas may get lucky with at least some precipitation next week, 
but the heaviest precipitation is likely to favor the middle of the country.

   Even there, though, it may not favor the areas most in need of 
precipitation. As the U.S. Drought Monitor showcased on its most recent update, 
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/, drought has expanded significantly across the 
Interior West, Central and Southern Plains, South and Southeast this week. Many 
areas of D3, extreme drought, and some areas of D4, exceptional drought cover 
vast areas of the country. Widespread, heavy precipitation is certainly needed 
this spring, as many of these areas are dealing with significant deficits 
during the last six months or longer.

   Though the pattern will bring through plenty of opportunities for 
improvement, those deficits will not be made up by a week of busy weather. And 
not all areas are likely to be hit. Some areas of the southwestern Plains and 
Southeast are unlikely to see much precipitation, and drought may worsen in 
this busier pattern. In contrast, some areas that are not seeing drought could 
see flooding after several consecutive days of thunderstorms, particularly in 
the Midwest.

   To go along with the heavier rain potential, severe weather looks like a 
distinct possibility with each of the impulses moving through the country. 
These impulses are not well forecast at the moment, and thus the areas of where 
severe weather may occur will likely shift during the coming days. But given 
that, there may be areas of severe weather east of the Rockies from Monday 
through at least Saturday, April 4, allowing for many areas to be threatened by 
strong thunderstorms.

   While much of the focus is on precipitation and thunderstorms, temperatures 
will eventually be low enough for some areas across the Northern Plains and 
Upper Midwest to experience some accumulating snow. It may take until late in 
the week for enough of the cooler Canadian air to move south to allow for the 
snow, but this will be a possibility as well.

   The active weather pattern may not stop at Easter weekend, either. Models 
are insistent on multiple systems moving through the country through at least 
the middle of April. It is too early to tell if there will be more help for 
those areas in drought or not, but keeping an active pattern going is at least 
giving these areas a chance to improve.

   To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free 
from DTN, head over to 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/weather/interactive-map

   John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com




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